In just a few years, the turning point for Ukraine will be a thing of the past, says Alexey Kusch.

Shocking statistics.

In 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine reached 495,000 people, while the birth rate was only 177,000, resulting in a gap of 2.8 times.

The natural negative population growth (yes, that is the term used in demographics) last year amounted to 318,000 people.

For the second consecutive year, the mortality rate has remained at the same level, showing virtually no change.

Furthermore, the already low birth rate in Ukraine has plummeted by nearly 6% (down by 11,000 births).

Considering emigration and the occupation of territories, war-related mortality now stands at no less than 100,000 people per year.

This figure, in terms of demographic impact, can be compared to the ongoing coronavirus epidemic.

Demographically, Ukraine has been in a conditional pandemic since 2020. Five years of "unnatural population decline," if one can put it that way.

If war is a national tragedy, then demographics represent a national catastrophe.

This situation is exacerbated by emigration from the country.

According to the NBU, in 2024, another 500,000 people left the country.

In 2025, this number could be even higher.

In total, Ukraine has lost more than 800,000 people in terms of human capital last year: 500,000 emigrated, and an equal number died, while only 177,000 were born.

A few more years of such a trend, and the point of revival will be far behind.

It is already behind, but there is still a chance. A small chance, but a chance nonetheless.