If America leaves us, we can endure. Here's why - Yegor Firsov.

I didn't want to publish this extensive text, but I decided to go ahead.

If America leaves us. My subjective perspective.

One time, a journalist from the U.S. came to us and asked, "What do you have in your arsenal that you can brag about?"

I scratched my head. I didn't want to offend him, but in my brigade – which, by the way (!), has been holding the front line in the most challenging direction for three years – we only had Starlink...

In the minds of ordinary people, and even politicians, there is much that no longer corresponds to reality. The situation on the battlefield changes very quickly, and what was considered the god of war yesterday is no longer at the top of the military pantheon today.

So, to understand the implications of a potential halt in American assistance to the front, let's analyze what we are currently reliant on from the U.S.

First, it’s not even weapons, but communication. Starlink! If it goes down – problems will start instantly: infantry in strongholds, reconnaissance, drone crews, artillerymen, headquarters in brigades and battalions… — everyone uses Starlink.

With WhatsApp, it's easy to reach the farthest position and talk to a soldier via video call. After any object is destroyed by an FPV drone, we immediately send that video to headquarters, allowing commanders to understand the situation on the battlefield in real-time.

If Starlink is shut off – disorganization of command can begin within the first hour. Additionally, some drones that rely solely on satellites may fail.

I’ll be honest: I believe that Starlink will not be turned off. Because that would not just be a halt in assistance; it would be an overtly hostile act in favor of Russia. It’s unlikely that the new administration would dare to show such demonstrative hostility towards the Ukrainian people.

But we must be prepared for this. And we should have started working on alternatives for communication "yesterday."

For example, the enemy has created alternative communication – these are Wi-Fi bridges – wide Wi-Fi networks where one can connect to the Internet.

We have time. No panic. But this resource needs to be used effectively, as problems can arise very unexpectedly.

The second point where we are significantly dependent on the U.S. is air defense. Specifically, the Patriot systems and their munitions. Urgent alternatives need to be sought: both for supplies and for the systems themselves. Otherwise, Ukrainian cities will be defenseless. This point should be one of the first in negotiations with Europe.

Now for the good news. It’s no coincidence that this war is called the "first drone war" — it means that most of the damage is inflicted by drones of various types. And predominantly, these drones are not from the U.S. However, I know that in various ways, including through non-governmental channels, the U.S. finances some projects.

Initially, the drones were Chinese. Now there are FPV drones that are almost entirely (along with their components!) produced in Ukraine.

Approximately 80% of all hits are made by drones.

The use of other types of weapons has significantly decreased compared to 2022-2023.

The use of artillery has now decreased tenfold compared to the barrage that was seen in 2022. Even from the enemy's side. Artillery systems are worn out, munitions have become much scarcer, and they are not accurate. Artillery is now used for important but narrow, specific tasks. Or to cover UAVs during bad weather for drones.

As for munitions for drones, we have a "shadow military-industrial complex" operating here, which is almost impossible to destroy even with great effort.

In thousands of basements and rural houses, ammunition of various types is being produced. Outdated Soviet mines are being refurbished, explosives are being processed in multicookers, and the munitions we need are being created. Moreover, they come in different types — from HE to thermobaric. This is, of course, very simplified. In reality, we have created a whole industry for self-sufficiency in drone munitions.

Including about fifty official manufacturers of munitions are already operational.

It is this "shadow" and official military-industrial complex that has provided us with the munitions that have destroyed 80 percent of targets over the past year.

I write all this to emphasize that Himars or the "777" howitzer are no longer the kings of the front. The drone reigns on the battlefield!

By the way, regarding Himars. Unfortunately, the enemy has long found ways to spoof our shots by altering the coordinates. Missiles arrive, but not where they should... The effectiveness of Himars has unfortunately diminished.

I don’t know if the Americans realize this, but it’s a bitter truth – systems that cost hundreds of millions of dollars sometimes do not yield adequate results. They needed to be actively destroying everything in the first year of the war. But at that time, the quantity of munitions available to us was limited. The time for significant opportunities was lost.

Next – the anti-tank complex Javelin. Of course, it’s an important tool. It saved us in the early months. But now – it is no longer the decisive weapon on the battlefield. If there are a few successful uses of Javelin across the entire front in a month – that’s good. In comparison – drones achieve over 10,000 verified hits per month.

Now about Pentagon intelligence. This is not my area of expertise, but I think the U.S. shared strategic information about enemy plans, troop redeployments, and satellite imagery data. And, of course, any information about the enemy is important.

It’s hard to say whether Europeans or anyone else can become an alternative source of such intelligence. It may complicate our ability to hit targets within Russia.

But one thing I can say for sure: platoons, companies, and brigades have never systematically used Pentagon data to destroy specific enemy positions on the front line. (Or this was done very rarely, as part of special operations, as an exception).

Modern battles are very maneuverable and dynamic. If a tank fired from a certain location, that position is relevant for a short period. After firing, the tank quickly moves to hide and even covers its tracks.

Therefore, the cessation of intelligence data transmission should not affect the effectiveness of the combat process.

I actually see more threats to the front from issues within our infantry than from the cessation of assistance from either side. But that is already our internal task.

I will say right away that besides what has been mentioned, the U.S. finances many other programs, such as our training, non-military programs, and also influences various institutions that provide us with funding.

But right now, we are talking about immediate criticality.

I also do not wish to downplay the role of any types of weapons.

Diversity is important in military affairs.

Even if it’s a Javelin – which was used once a year, during heavy rain – when all drones stopped working.

And this text isn’t to suggest that we can send everyone to hell and confront an enemy like Russia without external support. As they say, it’s easier to beat the father together. But if it suddenly happens that we are left without U.S. support, or even under pressure from the Trump administration, know this: we, the Ukrainian people, have come a long way over these years and achieved a lot. And fortunately, in military terms, we have become much less dependent on our partners.

We need to understand: our friends and main allies today are drones. And the golden hands and minds that produce them. And they certainly will not change.

So, yes, if it happens that we find ourselves without U.S. support, it will be difficult for us. Sometimes – very difficult! The war will not "end in 24 hours," Ukraine will pay a higher price for peace in Europe than it could have. Let it be on the conscience of specific politicians, not the American people. But we will endure. If we stand together. Just like in the early days…