The choices made during the ceasefire will determine whether peace is achieved or a new phase of conflict begins - Olesya Yakhno.
In fact, even from public statements and discussions, two key components can be identified:
- Stopping the war and the tools that can be utilized for this purpose.
- Long-term conditions for moving towards peace and solutions that will either strengthen Ukraine and weaken Russia, or vice versa.
Regarding the first point, finally, the Biden administration in the United States has imposed sanctions against the shadow fleet of oil tankers. India has already announced that it will refuse to accept vessels that fall under U.S. sanctions. It seems that the future team of Donald Trump also has an understanding of possible alternative tools to compel Russia to halt further military actions.
As for the second point, the understanding is still in the formation stage. This is because changes may also involve the U.S.-Europe relationship regarding security as well as economic and trade issues. However, a clear stance is already being articulated on two matters.
The first matter in our favor is the further strengthening of Ukraine's defense capabilities. At the 25th "Ramstein" meeting, for instance, cooperation programs up to 2027 were discussed. It is also worth noting that this is part of the broader security approach within Europe as a whole. Recently, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that 2% on defense is already insufficient: "We are safe now, but we won't be safe in 4-5 years. If we don't do this (referring to increasing defense spending), we'll have to pull out the textbooks from Russian or head to New Zealand." Rutte made this comment half-jokingly, although the joke was only in the wording, not in the content, specifically regarding the "neither war nor peace" situation, which he also mentioned.
The second matter, crucial for the movement towards peace, is Ukraine's membership or even an invitation to NATO as a security guarantee. Here, the U.S., like Germany, unfortunately adheres to the approach that this decision will not be made during wartime. At the same time, discussions are underway about what security guarantees might exist if NATO membership is not on the table. A lot will depend on which country in Europe will take the lead in security decisions: the United Kingdom, France, or Germany.
Thus, as of today, we can state: since the risks within NATO (and primarily in Europe) are not only understood but also recognized, Ukraine will continue to receive assistance in strengthening its defense capabilities. Otherwise, the risks for the West will increase even more. However, it is hoped that, in addition to this, leaders of Western alliances will take the initiative to formulate a long-term vision of security components.
For the nature of the political decisions made after or during a possible freeze of active military actions in the "neither war nor peace" situation will determine whether we will move towards an established peace or into a new phase of war.