Why the surroundings of Pokrovsk are physically impossible - Alexander Kovalenko.

There is currently much discussion about the plans of the Russian command to encircle Pokrovsk before launching an assault on the city. In some ways, this is a sound strategy, as an isolated city in defense cannot hold out for long; however, planning and execution are two very different matters.

The Russian forces currently deployed in the Pokrovsk area are critically lacking the strength and resources needed to implement the encirclement plan, which demands enormous resources.

To encircle the city—and not just surround it, but also establish flanks and buffer control zones along the LBS of encirclement—a grouping of at least 150,000 troops is necessary. In contrast, there are just over 100,000 troops concentrated across the entire Pokrovsk-Kurakhovo direction. This means that even if all troops from the Kurakhovo direction were redeployed to Pokrovsk for the encirclement operation, there would still not be enough to carry out the plan.

In other words, under the current conditions, encircling Pokrovsk is physically impossible.

Meanwhile, the ROV will primarily attempt to cut off logistics to the city. The nearest artery at risk is the 04-06 highway, which is also accompanied by a railway. I believe that in the coming days we will witness fierce battles in the Kotlina area, where units from the 55th OMSBr and 41st OVA will be deployed.

If they manage to capture this village, it is quite predictable that the ROV will move along the 04-06 highway to the west towards the administrative border with the Dnipropetrovsk region. This direction appears to be much more advantageous for them in terms of reaching the administrative border of the region than stretching along the Solenaya River, which presents numerous topographical challenges and obstacles.

Secondly, the ROV will not relent in their attempts to reach the M-30 highway and cut it off west of Pokrovsk, a task that takes precedence over surrounding the city itself. This applies not only to the M-30 to the west of Pokrovsk but also to the eastern logistics route 05-04 towards Konstantinovka. Many seem to have forgotten about this route, yet it is currently under threat of being cut off like never before.

The fact is that the ROV are less than 2 kilometers from the junction of 05-04 to the north of Vozdvizhenska. The village that has held out for over 5 months is being pushed, and its occupation is a matter of time, just as the subsequent advance of the ROV towards the section of 05-04 between Malinovka and Vodyanoye Vtoroye.

Thus, in the near future, the ROV will mainly focus on creating conditions for the main phase of the offensive on the city, which includes systematically cutting off logistics. However, starting this main phase without having cut the Kurakhovo salient and without disrupting logistics would be, to put it mildly, illogical. But where are the Russians and where is logic? If the order is given to storm the city before Donald Trump's inauguration, they will proceed with it, and it would be better for us if they did so sooner rather than later. It is better in the sense that the ratio of losses to effectiveness would not favor the ROV.