Political strategies failed: Sandu's disapproval rating dragged the referendum down, according to Alexey Yakubin.

Election in Moldova and the referendum held there reveal several important insights. Maia Sandu, the current president of Moldova, has focused on the geopolitical direction of the country, thus the organization of presidential elections and the referendum, as practice has shown, was not the best idea.

The president expected this to boost her approval ratings. However, in reality, her unpopularity and negative ratings (around 50% according to sociological surveys) negatively impacted the context of this referendum. Despite a significant portion of Moldovans holding Romanian passports, which could have supported eurointegration, the attempt to leverage the referendum for personal rating enhancement proved unsuccessful.

Besides geopolitics, Moldova faces other challenges. For instance, the price of gas has risen dramatically. Maia Sandu sought to overshadow these issues with the geopolitical choice, but Moldovans are still considering the situation within the EU and in the context of the EU's actions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

This does not indicate unpopularity of the European Union in Moldova. Rather, it reflects the unpopularity of the president among the populace. The results mirror dissatisfaction with the current government's actions.

As a result of the elections, the political landscape in Moldova is undergoing changes. Sandu's main opponent has garnered a significant number of votes, and the second round of elections will take place on November 3. It is possible that her negative ratings could influence the outcome to the extent that she might lose the elections.

However, key political processes will unfold after the presidential elections, as the parliament plays a crucial role in Moldova. In 9 months, parliamentary elections will be held, and if Sandu's party loses, the country's politics may shift. Will there be implications for Ukraine? Until the results of these elections are in, we cannot assert that changes are imminent, but if a new president is elected, their policy towards Ukraine could change. This raises the question of how Kyiv is prepared to account for and respond to these geopolitical shifts.