Trump's representative, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv. What does this imply? Here are seven key takeaways from Vadim Denisenko.

Trump's representative Keith Kellogg has postponed his trip to Kyiv at least until January 20. What does this mean?

1. I have mentioned multiple times that Putin is not ready to sit at the negotiating table and has set an impossible condition: Ukraine must officially renounce its territories (similar to the scenario of Czechoslovakia in 1938 or post-war Finland).

2. As far as I understand, Trump expects Ukraine to signal its readiness to abandon NATO in exchange for enhanced security guarantees. This, in my opinion, is currently one of the fundamental negotiation principles (de facto, the start of dialogue with Putin). Ukraine has not provided such a signal.

3. It is important to note the position of the Biden administration, which has significantly raised the stakes in the war in recent days. Notably, we should pay attention to our strike on Ust-Luga (the main oil and gas transshipment point for Russia in the Baltic). We have not targeted this port for nearly a year, primarily due to the caution of the Biden administration, which feared that such strikes could increase oil prices. We need to observe how events unfold, but our recent strike serves, on one hand, as a signal to the Russians about potential escalation. On the other hand, we do not have an answer to the question: is this a path to peace through escalation for Trump, or an undesirable factor, given that the world and the U.S. are not prepared for a rapid replacement of Russian oil? Although, the fear of possible closure of oil revenues can sometimes be greater than the closure itself.

4. We must keep in mind that Trump's announced 10% tariff on European goods will bankrupt several European economies. Continuing our war gives the EU a strong negotiating position with the U.S. This is a very irritating point and it is not a fait accompli, much less a consensus for the EU, but we cannot ignore it. The Trump team cannot afford to overlook it either.

5. In an interview with Friedman, Zelensky proposed his version of the negotiation process: first, a common position between the U.S. and Ukraine is formulated, and then negotiations with Putin take place. It is unlikely that the Trump team is ready to unconditionally support such a negotiation approach at this time.

6. It is still unclear how the Trump team's dialogue with Beijing will be conducted. Currently, we only hear about a "forceful" option. But I will reiterate what I have said many times: without China, the equation of the peace formula (freeze) is incredibly difficult to solve.

7. Attention should be paid to the internal processes in Ukraine, which are certainly being monitored by the Trump team.

Overall, Kellogg's visit postponement is more than logical from Trump's perspective. There are no quick solutions under these conditions. And if there are none, then there is no point in going to Kyiv. On the other hand, there is currently no alternative to Kellogg's plan within Trump’s team. Therefore, all decisions are postponed at least until February. This is understood in Moscow as well. Consequently, everything we've heard in recent days about needing to make a "simple decision" and "amputate unnecessary territories" will be a fundamental narrative among useful idiots and Russian conservatives within Ukraine.

However, the Trump team understands that in February, only the most complacent critic of Trump will not be asking: "Where is the solution to the Ukraine issue in one day?" And if there is no topic to replace Ukraine, it will force the Trump team to play a fast-paced game of chess. I maintain the opinion that there are only two things that can compel Putin to sit at the negotiating table—oil revenues @ and the fear of losing support from China.