Ukrainian rare earth metals for the U.S. are a myth to end the war, says Yuriy Korolchuk.

The Myth of Rare Earth Metals

Ukraine's Rare Earth Metals for the USA – this is a myth aimed at ending the war. And let there be contracts worth at least 3 trillion dollars.

If someone wants to believe that a good fairy came and magically conjured up reserves, deposits, ready mines, or quarries for extracting rare earth metals in Ukraine overnight – that's already a matter for psychoanalysis and psychotherapy.

The beautiful Hollywood story about rare earth metals is a shell game. While we’re focused on our little ball, that ball has long been in Trump's pocket. Therefore, viewing the "mineral agreement" as a panacea for Ukraine is simply not feasible. Neither philosophically, nor economically, nor politically.

But people gladly believe in fairy tales. It's no surprise that the story of vast reserves of rare earth metals in Ukraine, which are increasingly valued in the future world, has found a comfortable place in the negotiation arena for ending the war in Ukraine.

Let me say right away that we only have old, tried and tested gas, oil, and ore (including titanium) for the Americans. Additional stories about American involvement in the privatization of state monopolies are just a side effect. Why would U.S. companies want a subsidized "Energoatom" (the state), which will require more and more investments, repairs, and replacements of units? And what about the old and broken coal-fired power plants (DTEK)? Americans don’t need solar and wind farms here. They already have plenty of their own unnecessary and subsidized assets.

One might think about a liquid gas sales market (Naftogaz) and "Gas Transmission System Operator" for the potential continuation of Russian gas transit. But there is so little money from the standpoint of a conditional Shell or Chevron that it raises the question: "Why bother?"

From the current historical paradigm, one can conclude that the USA is indeed stuck in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Exiting it without image losses will be impossible. Hence the attempt by the USA and Trump to supposedly seek compensation. This is for the internal American market and media narrative.

And returning to the "shell games" – the benefit for the USA will definitely not lie in rare earth metals or privatization. After all, waiting 20-30-40 years for results is not beneficial.

It is impossible to develop what does not exist. And even if attempts are made to explore and establish deposits of such metals, no one knows how much time and resources this will take – absolutely no one.

One should not indulge in the illusion that it was "evil" Trump who devised the idea of squeezing Ukraine for its natural resources. Biden fully shared the view of exploiting Ukraine's resources. Let's remember the Swiss Lugano in 2022 and London in 2023. The plans for Ukraine's renewal included proposals for investments in natural resources and privatization. In one case, they counted a total of over $700 billion, while in the other – over $400 billion. Simply put, the Europeans handled it with intelligence and did not rush. By the way, in 2024, no one was able to stir up a powerful investment recovery conference.

The real interest of the USA (and Europe) remains in the triangle – gas, ore, a bit of oil. And this is not the first time the USA has "exploited" the theme of Ukraine's natural resources. A similar investment scheme for subsoil resources was attempted in 2012-2013 when President Yanukovych negotiated with the USA for the arrival of Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil into Ukraine's continental gas production and gas extraction in the Black Sea shelf. Beautiful stories about shale gas extraction would eventually smoothly transition into the extraction of conventional gas.

Agreements on the use of natural resources are not a Trump innovation. Nor are they a Biden innovation, because sooner or later they also set Ukraine before the fact of "money back." The first was Obama. Under him, agreements on natural resources were officially signed through Shell, Chevron, and ExxonMobil for the first time.

Undoubtedly, companies from the USA will come to Ukraine. There are plenty of interesting areas for work, including the extraction of natural resources. But they are more likely to "divide the orange" along with companies from China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and less influential intermediary countries, their offshore companies, etc. And here, interests from Russia may already emerge.