Russia will invest heavily in undermining Sandu and creating a revolutionary situation and chaos, according to Vadim Denisenko.

A journalist and member of the Ukrainian Parliament from the 8th convocation discusses how Russia may attempt to influence the situation in Moldova:

https://news.telegraf.com.ua/blogi-mnenija/2024-10-21/5882529-rossiya-brosit-vse-dengi-na-proigrysh-sandu-i-sozdanie-revolyutsionnoy-situatsii-i-besporyadkov2024-10-22 07:25:26

Regarding Moldova:

We should not be concerned about the referendum results at this point. The key issue for us is Sandu's victory in the second round.

Now, a brief overview of the reasons:

1. The four identities of Moldova (excluding Transnistria): Romanian (about 40%, which Sandu has consolidated), Moldovan (up to 30%, representing Sandu's main potential), Gagauz, and Soviet (all others).

2. Euroskepticism due to fears of war and inadequate support for Ukraine. By the way, this skepticism is also growing in Ukraine.

3. Vote rigging and bribery of voters (primarily pensioners).

The main focus now is the second round. Russia will invest all its resources, hoping for two favorable outcomes: Sandu's defeat and the creation of a revolutionary situation and unrest in Chisinau. However, even under these conditions, they will be unable to do anything in the medium term regarding Transnistria. Nonetheless, the information noise may start to escalate sharply. It is possible that the information war in this direction will intensify.