"Ukraine currently holds the strongest negotiating position," says Alexander Kovalenko.

Positions of the Parties.

To grasp the ongoing situation and the current standings of each party, it is essential to clarify several points that will contribute to a comprehensive rather than a fragmented picture.

First and foremost – the United States does not have a "peace plan." As of now, neither Donald Trump nor anyone in his circle possesses a cohesive, operational "peace plan," nor are they likely to have one in the short term. There are initiatives, sometimes overly hyped, but they do not constitute a plan of action.

Next, I found China Kellogg's statement about 180 days, or half a year, intriguing. Why? Just recall what I wrote in my forecast for 2025, especially regarding the first half of the year, and everything will become clear.

No less interesting are the ongoing discussions about whether Ukraine will have a seat at the negotiating table. Are you seriously asking such questions? Ukraine currently holds the strongest position in this process. Let's elaborate on this.

Ukraine's position is so strong right now that it can issue an ultimatum to the United States – any meetings with the Russian side without a special representative from Ukraine will be considered illegitimate; we do not recognize them and do not accept the decisions made. Even if the U.S. manages to strike a deal with Russia without us, it will not be effective unless we accept it. And we clearly will not accept it.

Some might argue that this is too uncompromising and could anger Donald Trump. Of course, it will anger him, as it is an ultimatum. But what will he do in response? Cut off aid to Ukraine? We have already been fighting for six months without U.S. assistance, thanks to the Republicans. Unfortunately, many are still in deep denial and do not understand that Russia is currently incapable of fighting as it did in 2022, 2023, and even in 2024! It is now waging not just a linear war but a wave-like one, while the Armed Forces of Ukraine maintain a stable defense.

In turn, the U.S. could completely be sidelined from the negotiation process, having lost trust from Kyiv. This would be a serious slap in the face to Donald Trump, a humiliation from which he may never recover. Not to mention the loss of the prospect of exploiting resources in Ukrainian fields, which no one will simply hand over to him. Donald Trump could lose much more without Ukraine than Ukraine could without Donald Trump.

Ukraine can fight without the U.S., with the help of Europe and other partners, whereas Donald Trump without Ukraine will find himself in a reputational quagmire. Moreover, such a throwaway move will be noted by the main antagonists of the U.S. and all those who find the 47th president unappealing as a colleague. The main thing is to realize this fact and understand Trump's dependence on the situation he is creating for himself.

So, Ukraine's position:

- A stable defensive strategy with experience in conducting military operations without prolonged U.S. assistance;

- Unchanging, and possibly even increasing, support from European partners and beyond;

- The Kursk region, and possibly not just that;

- Resources that Trump desperately desires but are slipping away from him due to the lack of specifics regarding Ukraine;

- A refusal of U.S. mediation would be a global reputational blow for Trump. What MAGA can be discussed when no one respects you?

Russia's position:

- A weakening and depleted army incapable of conducting large-scale offensive campaigns, with zero operational-tactical results after 2022 and a growing frailty leading to acute crisis by 2025;

- Dependence on timelines; the longer the war drags on, the more the resources of the Russian Federation and Russia itself become depleted;

- The Kursk region, significantly undermining the Kremlin's negotiating position, and not the only potential development on its territory;

- Increasing quantity and quality of strikes on Russia by Ukrainian means of destruction.

So, what tone should Ukraine adopt in conversations with American colleagues to defend its position?