Ukraine is hindering the current America from achieving two key objectives. What is the new reality? - Valeriy Pekar

New reality. Brief description.

A week was spent piecing together the picture from all the chaos that has surrounded us. Finally, it's complete. This text could be supplemented with important details that will become known later, but I am publishing it quickly so that we can familiarize ourselves with the new reality. But first, pour yourself some tea to have the strength to read to the end.

1.

So, the old world order has come to an end. The old world order, based on rules, agreements, and values, no longer exists. It was never perfect, but it was there. Now it is gone.

Describing the reasons for the collapse of the world order deserves a separate article; here I will briefly note that developed countries benefited from the world order, while developing countries (those catching up or at least pretending to do so) sought to dismantle it because it was unfavorable for them. At some point, developing countries (primarily China) began to catch up with the developed ones, and the most powerful developed country, the USA, decided it was time to shift from protecting the old order to destroying it. That is why the American people elected Trump, who became the spokesperson for this idea. This is not a coincidence but a manifestation of a trend (as is everything else in the world). Previously, one side would attack the supporting structure while the other side would maintain and repair it; now the structure is being dismantled from both sides, which will go much faster.

In this "new world without order," the USA will not protect its European or Asian allies. In this world, there are no alliances or allies, no mutual obligations, and old agreements can be unilaterally revised. There are only large powerful countries that take what they want and small weak ones that become victims of such policies. At least, this is how the new American administration sees the world. They are not isolationists – they are expansionists, and we should not be surprised by their demands regarding Greenland, Canada, or Panama.

It appears that the current American administration is not monolithic. It consists of many groups with different values and interests, but for now, I will highlight just two key ones. Let's conditionally call them America First and techno-oligarchs (it would be more accurate to refer to them as techno-fascists, using this term not as an insult but to denote their ideology). America First dreams of dismantling the world order while strengthening the American state to ensure that America dominates the world. The techno-oligarchs aspire to dismantle the world order, including the American state, so that their tech corporations can dominate the world.

The strategy of the first group is outlined in the Project-2025 by the Heritage Foundation. The strategy of the techno-oligarchs is shaped by Musk, Thiel, Sachs, and other members of this cohort. These two groups have opposing views on taxation, intelligence agencies, migrants (the techno-oligarchs need talent from around the world, while America First is against migrants), and other issues, so sooner or later, they will clash. But for now, they are united in their desire to dismantle what has been as quickly as possible. "We will destroy the entire world of violence, we will tear it out by the roots, and then..." – we have heard this somewhere before.

The new America does not want to be a global policeman and maintain order in the world. It will not protect democracy, will not spread education, will not develop institutions, etc. – it only wants your assets (previously, only China acted this way). The new America does not believe in alliances and agreements; it believes in the right of the strong in a multipolar world. If you are strong, do what you want. If you are weak, give up "your clothes, shoes, and motorcycle," as the Terminator said. This is neocolonialism, either in economic or military form. The new America does not believe in multilateralism, meaning it does not need international institutions; therefore, it is possible that in the near future, the USA will withdraw from NATO (if not formally, then factually), the World Trade Organization, and perhaps even the UN. Musk will explain this as a necessity to save American resources, Trump will cite the ineffectiveness of institutions (and he will be right, but instead of repairing them, he will suggest demolishing everything to the ground), Project-2025 will argue that if the USA needs to assist someone, they can do it directly, "without unnecessary bureaucrats."

2.

What does the new American policy mean for Europe? The security contract with Europe, Pax Americana, has ended. Europe as a center of power is unfavorable to America: it is no longer an ally (because there are no allies), but an alternative center of power – and the fewer centers of power, the better. Here, America's goals align with those of Russia and China: to divide Europe from America, to break the European Union, and to leave Europe weak, fragmented, and powerless as a collection of unprotected markets and looting. A cumbersome seal that can be nibbled from all sides.

It is still unclear how the American administration envisions areas of influence in Europe: whether it will be looted from both sides or whether Western Europe will be an area of exclusive American interests while Eastern Europe will be under Russia's influence (as it was during the Cold War), and what will happen with China's encroachments (which is already gradually buying up Europe). But the main goal is to dismantle the European Union, to divide everyone, and for this, they openly support Eurosceptics from the far-right (and Russia also from the far-left) end of the political spectrum. If strong individual leaders emerge from the ruins of Europe, the USA will cooperate with them. So far, they do not see such leaders in France, Germany, or Britain.

3.

What does the new American policy mean for Russia? America sees China as its greatest adversary. Here we have what I call the biggest geopolitical mistake of the 21st century: Americans' belief in the possibility of separating Russia from China and turning it in the opposite direction against China. From our perspective, this is impossible. But as we know, every American administration initially sought to "reset" relations with Russia, mistakenly considering it part of Western civilization. None of these "resets" ended well, but that is a story for another time.

In this situation, the primary concern of the American administration is the collapse of the Russian regime. This must be prevented at all costs. Two years ago, I wrote that the fear of Russia's defeat far surpasses the fear of Ukraine's defeat (without which the world lived perfectly well for hundreds of years), to the extent that there might come a moment when, instead of supporting Ukraine against Russia, America would begin to support Russia against Ukraine. Unpleasant, but that day has arrived.

Within the first month of his presidency, Trump pulled Russia out of international isolation, presenting it not as an aggressor and international terrorist but as a powerful country entitled to its place at the table of great powers. It is possible that sanctions will soon be lifted.

Imagine that during World War II, the President of the USA, instead of helping Britain fight the Nazi Reich, would send negotiators to meet with representatives of Hitler instead of providing lend-lease to the USSR, calling Adolf his best friend, preparing for a personal meeting, and explaining to everyone that Czechoslovakia, Poland, and France are to blame for the war, and that he and his friend Adolf would somehow come to an agreement.

4.

What does the new American policy mean for Ukraine? First of all, there will no longer be support for Ukraine. Even last autumn, Ukrainian analysts explained that there would be no support from the USA regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections.

Sometimes it seems to us that someone in the American administration hates Ukraine, while someone else loves it. This is a childish approach: a child thinks he is the center of attention, and everyone around him relates to him in some way, either positively or negatively. An adult knows that the world is predominantly indifferent to you. The world is not Ukraine-centric. In their understanding, Ukraine is neither good nor bad – it is simply irrelevant, meaning it has no bearing on the matter.

Ukraine hinders the current America from doing two things. First, weakening Europe so that it is defenseless. Second, strengthening Russia to use it against China. Therefore, Ukraine must be punished – nothing personal, just business.

A currently popular metaphor in the new American administration compares the ongoing war to the American Civil War. Ukraine appears as a rebellious southern province. The good northerners will finally defeat the bad southerners and restore order. And outside states (the USA, Europe) should not interfere in someone else's civil war.

5.

What should we do in this situation?

First, we must stop thinking that we can somehow "sell" ourselves to the new American administration. We are a bothersome obstacle in the realization of their plans. We have nothing to offer them.

What can America use to pressure Ukraine? Probably not by cutting off aid, because aid will stop anyway. Certain aspects