In 2024, cocoa beans have become one of the most profitable commodities.
According to MarketWatch, the price of cocoa for delivery in March 2024 has surged to nearly $12,000 per ton, marking an astonishing increase of 185% since the beginning of 2023. Currently, cocoa futures on the New York Stock Exchange hover around $11,500 per ton.
Industry experts point to systemic issues in cocoa production that have been brewing for over a decade. Igor Bondar, owner of "Cocoa Smak," explained that these problems have intensified over the past five years, culminating in a crisis during the 2023-2024 growing season.
A significant factor is the aging cocoa plantations in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which together account for about 65% of global supply. Many cocoa trees planted in the early 2000s have surpassed their peak productivity, as the average lifespan for optimal fruiting is 20-25 years. This has led to a sharp decline in yields, with production on older plantations decreasing by nearly half in recent years.
Moreover, stricter environmental regulations have restricted cocoa cultivation in protected forest areas, forcing farmers to replant their crops. However, new trees typically require 3-4 years to start bearing fruit, delaying recovery efforts. MarketWatch data indicates that the current agricultural year has ended with the largest cocoa bean supply deficit in the last six decades.
While global cocoa prices have been steadily rising for over a year, Ukrainian consumers are just beginning to feel the impact.
According to Bondar, there is usually a 3-4 month lag in the Ukrainian market before price changes become apparent due to existing inventories.
He predicts that chocolate and cocoa prices in Ukraine may increase by 50-70% compared to the end of 2024, reflecting trends in the global stock market.
Bondar emphasized that the price surge primarily depends on which cocoa derivatives—cocoa butter or cocoa powder—experience the most significant increase. If cocoa butter and liquor, used in chocolate production, see the highest price hikes, a standard chocolate bar currently priced at 40-50 UAH could jump to 80-85 UAH.
Conversely, if cocoa powder and fat, used in coatings and beverages, are more affected, the impact on chocolate prices may be less dramatic.
Additionally, Marina Novikova, owner of the online store "CacaoGold," highlighted the influence of rising costs of imported raw materials.
Novikova also noted that the price of cocoa powder has risen by 50 UAH per kilogram in recent months, affecting the prices of finished products.
Experts believe that the global cocoa crisis will persist for the next several years, as it will take time for newly planted cocoa trees to mature. Recovery of global yields is not expected before 2026-2027.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian consumers should prepare for further increases in chocolate and cocoa prices due to ongoing supply shortages and rising production costs.