This winter has passed almost without power outages, largely due to the mild weather. However, by February, average daily temperatures may drop to -16 degrees. As a result of worsening weather conditions, stabilization schedules for power outages may return. This was reported by "Izvestno" citing a conversation between the head of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association and the CEO of Solar Generation, Stanislav Ignatiev, with the publication "Telegraf".
"Currently, a mass of air in Central Europe has mixed with hot, dry air from the Sahara. That is why it is so warm in Ukraine right now, and the cherry blossoms are blooming. Most importantly, we are saving electricity, and there are no stabilization restrictions for consumers - 'power outages',” says Ignatiev.
At the same time, an anticyclone with incoming Arctic cold is currently forming over the Aleutian minimum (the coldest point on Earth).
"Frosts are forecasted from February 5th, reaching -16 degrees. According to the Ventusky meteorological radar, the cold weather may last until February 10th across all of Ukraine. This means that average daily temperatures will drop to -10 degrees," he adds.
It is no secret that low air temperatures lead to a deficit in the energy system.
Ignatiev reminded that over the past three years in Ukraine, when average temperatures drop to -5 degrees, a potential deficit in the energy system arises during peak hours (morning and evening) at a level of 2 GW hours.
"Currently, we can technically cover this deficit at a level of 2.1 GW hours, but only if we have this electricity from our European neighbors," the interviewee explains.
According to Ignatiev, with average daily temperatures of -10 degrees, the deficit during peak hours could potentially reach up to 4 GW hours.
"Therefore, it is likely that this will force the dispatcher to implement morning and evening stabilization outages," concluded the chairman of the Ukrainian Renewable Energy Association.
Forecasters say that at the beginning of February, there are all chances for the return of a true winter with frosts.
At the same time, there are also forecasts that Ukrainians will experience an abnormally warm February. The average air temperature in February is expected to range from -3 to +2°C, which is 1.5-2°C higher than the usual figures for this period.