According to the expert, Ukraine is currently importing electricity not only for emergency needs but also to cover ongoing shortages. Pavlenko predicts that the situation may be similar in winter.
"The current situation is such that it's no longer just an emergency; we are effectively importing to meet our regular needs and to cover these shortages that we have. In winter, it will also be a – I think, very similar scenario," she noted.
The expert highlighted two key issues that Ukraine may face. The first is the availability of electricity in EU countries during winter, which will depend on temperature conditions. The second is the high cost of imported electricity.
"There is a small problem. It concerns how much electricity will be needed in the EU countries themselves, how much they will be willing to sell us in winter – this also relates to winter temperatures in the European Union. The second issue is prices, because we have to buy electricity at European prices, which are high," Pavlenko explained.
She also pointed out the necessity of addressing systemic issues in the Ukrainian energy market, particularly problems related to debts and the price cap – the maximum price for electricity.
"This is a systemic issue. It relates to how we resolve problems in the market concerning debts and the so-called price cap, which is the upper limit on electricity prices," the expert added.
However, she emphasized the need for long-term planning to address financial obligations.
"Everyone understands that we are in a state of war. And when you communicate with ENTSO-E, with European operators, they are open to discussion, they are open to negotiations, everyone understands everything, but in the future, we will still receive bills, and we have to pay them," Pavlenko concluded.