Not just raising the stakes. What lies behind Putin's nuclear threats - Vadim Deniseko.

Putin's speech contained veiled nuclear threats. What does it all mean?

1. Putin has initiated the game of Caribbean Crisis-2, which is the most significant game of his life. He has always dreamed of redoing this crisis and challenging the USA, believing that it was during that time that Khrushchev could have altered the course of history, and if he hadn’t been frightened, the USA would have been defeated.

2. ⁠He does everything with a keen eye on the USA and constantly appeals to them.

3. ⁠He is narrowing his options. By raising the stakes to the maximum, he demands (or asks) that Trump be the one to call him first. This is an obsession for him; he wants that call to initiate a conversation. To him, just having that conversation would symbolize that he is feared. And this is more important than any agreements. Being cowardly by nature, he relishes the fear of his opponent.

4. ⁠Russian elites are terrified and are already convinced that something must be done about it. They will not forgive him for this fear, no matter how strange that may sound right now. He is completely violating all agreements. But now he is not just making them poorer; he is making them accomplices in their own demise. They are not prepared for collective suicide. This will inevitably change the mood among the elites, albeit with some delay.

5. ⁠Interestingly, China is silent, viewing this as its opportunity for negotiations with the USA. China sees this as its chance to engage the USA in talks. A nuclear strike could be beneficial for them because it would force the USA to come to the negotiating table. However, it remains uncertain how and who from the outside will influence a change of power in Russia. Additionally, there is the factor of North Korea, which China could relatively easily manage by wrapping Kim in a tight embrace.

6. ⁠Within Putin's circle, there is undoubtedly a group of people who would benefit from a nuclear strike, as it would allow them to isolate Putin in a bunker. I believe this group is led by Kiriyenko.

7. For the first time in these three years, I can say that the threat of a nuclear strike is emerging. While it is still small, it exists. The primary reason is the interest of a group of individuals around Putin who will fuel his ambitions to later isolate and overthrow him.

8. ⁠The main question now is once again the same: are we mere objects? And here, just as on 24.02.22, we have only one game — to not be afraid, in order to become subjects. We managed to do this in 2022. We can do it again now.