According to data from the National Bank and economic analysts, inflation was driven by:
The rise in food prices — poor harvests and increased production costs have led to higher food prices.
The devaluation of the hryvnia — the national currency weakened by 14%, resulting in increased import costs and rising domestic prices.
Business expenses — companies faced rising costs for electricity, wages, and operational needs.
Economist Taras Kozak notes that the increase in prices accelerated in the fall, as the summer devaluation of the hryvnia began to affect prices in September-October.
Another significant factor is the purported rise in wages. Businesses had to raise salaries due to a labor shortage caused by:
Ukrainians leaving the country or serving in the Armed Forces.
Some individuals are avoiding mobilization and refusing formal employment.
Economists propose two main scenarios for inflation growth in 2025:
The optimistic forecast — if the economy stabilizes and the National Bank manages to control price increases, inflation could slow to 7–8% by the end of 2025.
The pessimistic forecast — if utility rates rise or the hryvnia weakens further, inflation could remain at 10% or higher.
According to Taras Kozak, the government is likely to increase prices for regulated services, such as utilities, as the budget cannot continue to subsidize these costs indefinitely.
However, the National Bank expects consumer inflation to decrease by mid-2025, remaining below 7% by the end of the year.
Considering the ongoing price fluctuations, experts recommend:
Budget planning — monitor expenses and prioritize essential spending.
Avoid unnecessary purchases — consider price trends before making significant purchases.
Save where possible. Building financial reserves can help cope with rising costs.
While inflation may slow down in 2025, economic uncertainty remains, so financial caution is still advised.