The weather conditions in the country are currently so mild that some plants typically associated with spring have started to bloom. This phenomenon is linked to climate patterns that have developed over the past few decades.
Winters in Ukraine have become noticeably warmer, with the average temperature rising by nearly 1.5 °C. Furthermore, the cold season has shortened by about one month due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This change has weakened the influence of Antarctic air masses, making them slower and warmer than before.
At present, weather systems from the Atlantic, which bring warmth and moisture, are responsible for the higher-than-usual temperatures. A recent influx of dry, hot air from the Sahara has also contributed to the warming. As a result, energy consumption has remained stable, reducing the need for electricity restrictions.
However, this stable situation may soon change. A powerful Arctic anticyclone is forming over the Aleutian minimum, recognized as the coldest region on the planet.
This system is expected to move towards Ukraine, leading to a sharp drop in temperatures.
Forecasts indicate that from February 5, temperatures could fall to -16 °C, with the cold expected to persist at least until February 10. The average daily temperature during this period is likely to hover around -10 °C.
This drop in temperature could significantly increase energy demand, potentially leading to a deficit in Ukraine's energy system. Analysis of past winters has shown that when temperatures reach -5 °C, the national grid faces a possible deficit of 2 GWh during peak hours in the morning and evening.
While the current energy infrastructure can manage this deficit through imports from European partners, a further drop in temperature to -10 °C could double the deficit to 4 GWh. If this occurs, controlled power outages may be required to stabilize the system.
With the anticipated cold wave approaching, authorities may need to implement electricity distribution stabilization schedules to prevent network overload. Residents of Ukraine should prepare for potential power supply interruptions in the coming weeks.